John McGrath – Brisbane Market’s Rebound Amongst The Strongest In Australia

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Brisbane’s property market over the past year or so, with prices hitting a record high before cooling off and then beginning a recovery. But with strong population growth and an infrastructure boom in the lead-up to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, the long term outlook is positive.

Brisbane has experienced one of the strongest rebounds amongst the capital cities in 2023. Home values have risen by 10.2% in the year to date, slightly trailing the performance of the top two markets – Sydney at 10.9% and Perth at 10.8%, according to the latest CoreLogic data.

As discussed in this year’s McGrath Report, Brisbane has had the biggest population increase of any capital city in the country, with Sydneysiders and Melburnians flocking north in droves in search of a better lifestyle.

The city’s population increased by nearly 60,000 people – or 2.3% – in FY22, with overseas students also returning. The city’s population is forecast to grow by a further 16% over the next decade, surpassing three million before the Olympic cauldron is lit.

The Sunshine Coast is experiencing the largest population growth in Australia, with people moving from both metropolitan and regional areas, leading to a 14.9% rise in the year to March 2023. It was closely followed by the Gold Coast at 7.8%.

In a pre-Olympic spending spree, the Federal and Queensland Governments are outlaying $5 billion to build new sporting venues and upgrade existing ones. Projects include building the new 17,000-seat Brisbane Arena and rebuilding The Gabba cricket ground, along with 16 other sites.

History has proven major events like this have a huge impact. Sydney property values climbed by 60% between the Olympic announcement in 1993 and the Games in 2000, whilst house prices in Brisbane reportedly rose 238% in the 11 years before Expo 88.

There are several other exciting infrastructure projects in the works. They include the new Cross River Rail, a 10.2km line with twin tunnels under the Brisbane River and CBD, and the proposed 37km Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line linking Beerwah with Caloundra, Kawana and Maroochydore.

Queensland is an attractive place for first homeowners. This month, the State Government announced it is doubling the First Home Owner Grant to $30,000 for people buying or building a new home under $750,000 between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. In addition, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have reportedly also seen some of the biggest uptakes in the country for the Federal Government’s Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee scheme, which started in October 2022.

Things are looking good for investors, but not so good for renters, with Brisbane rents rising by 10.3% in FY23. Rents also rose by 4.5% on the Sunshine Coast and 7% on the Gold Coast over the same period.

Many landowners have also been spared a tax increase, with the Queensland Government shelving proposed land tax changes that would have included the value of investment properties owned in other states when working out how much land tax to charge on Queensland investment properties.

Overall, the outlook for South East Queensland is positive for both owner occupiers and investors, with prices rising, strong population growth and mass infrastructure investment. The sooner you invest in this burgeoning region, the better.

View the McGrath Report to see my top suburb picks in Brisbane and surrounds for 2024.