Have we run out of homes? – John McGrath

Last week, we released the 2026 McGrath Report, which reveals three property important trends as well as my top suburb picks for the new year in NSW, Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania.

There are plenty of other reasons to read the report, namely its overarching theme, ‘Have we run out of homes?’ Here I examine the complexities of Australia’s housing crisis, including severe labour shortages and construction costs, and the issues that are of key concern.

Firstly, reflecting on a fundamental contradiction, over half of our vast country’s population is squeezed into Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. This has resulted in massive price pressure and property density in these locations.  As a result, only 22% of Australians are satisfied with the availability of good and affordable housing. This figure drops to only 16% for Australian aged under 34.

The numbers paint a picture that should concern us all. New borrowers are spending 50% of their household income on mortgage repayments.  And, this home price-to-income ratio has already climbed eight times. Meanwhile, potential buyers need to save for over a decade for a 20% deposit and renters are dedicating 33% of their household income to rent.

After decades in this industry, I’ve learned that the housing market has three key pillars – supply, affordability, and construction viability.  Right now all three pillars are compromised.  While this is of course, a major problem, even more worrying is the fact that Australia’s housing dilemma isn’t due to land scarcity.  It is accessibility that is the real issue.

What do I mean by this? Our major cities and other locations across Australia have plenty of land which is ideal for developments. But this land is not connected to essential infrastructure. However the property development industry has some major challenges – these include a doubling or even tripling in significant labour skills, while construction costs have risen 30%. As a result, many developments simply can’t be built profitable at current market prices.

So, what’s the answer? Examining and exploring these issues in full, I believe the main reason for Australia’s housing contradiction is accessibility – and not land scarcity.  And, for real change to occur in our property market, we need to focus on supply bottlenecks. We need to free up people’s options of where they can live.

Part of this change means we need to streamline development processes, reduce approval time frames, and provide better infrastructure in locations with ample land. This change is finally happening in some areas, with rising development activity around transport hubs underway, which should in turn eventually ease some property pressure.

Government -owned land with existing infrastructure should also be prioritised for development. Skilled migration and training could help address labour shortages while supporting innovative construction methods that reduce costs.

Despite these issues, I believe that Australia’s property market does have several reasons to celebrate.  Firstly, housing demand is moderating and expected to stabilise at about 175,000 households annually from 2026.  Construction cost growth is slowing down too and State governments are beginning some planning reforms, with the aim of expanding supply options.

Helping the market further are the three property trends analysed in this year’s McGrath Report. This includes the significant changes that cashed-up Generation X has on today’s property choices.  We also explore in the trend, Lifestyle Locations: Walkable, Liveable, Loveable, the appeal of neighbourhood living, whether it be in city or regional areas that boast a city lifestyle with rural tranquility. In the third trend Weathering The Future, renowned architect Adam Haddow, illustrates how design and sustainability impacts more efficient home design.

Australia has the land, demand, and capability. I hope the insights we offer in this year’s McGrath Report encourage and highlight some of the changes needed. If you’re interested in finding out about any of these trends or examine the suburbs I feel are poised for growth, you can view the report here.